Pushing Weight

Jeff Francoeur has added 17lbs of muscle in the offseason.   -  With all the drama going on in the MLB I hope its safe to say he did this on the up and up.  I’m always a little wary when people show up to camp noticeably bigger than last year.  They get pull happy thinking they can crush the ball in every AB which leads to declines in useless stats like OBP, BB, and hits and increases things like SO and losing.  Here’s his line from last year courtesy of BB Prospecuts:

 G      AB    H       2B  3B  HR    R  RBI  SO   BB    GDP   BA   OBA    SLG               
162   642  188  40   0  19   84  105 129   42    14  .293  .338  .444

EqA for 2007 Season: .268

 Now, lets look at his 2006 year stats:
G         AB     H     2B  3B HR R     RBI    SO     BB  GDP BA OBA SLG
 162   651  169  24   6  29   83  103   132   23   16  .260  .293  .449

EqA for 2006 Season: .245

*Statistical mean EqA is .260 – Arod’s 2007 EqA ? .339.  So, average MLBer .260; superhuman stud season .339

So, from ‘06 to ‘07 JF went from being a below avg offense player, to a very serviceable right fielder.  He had 19 more hits in 8 less ABs, his OBP went from a Bubba Crosbyesque sub .300 to a more respectable .338.  His slugging is almost identical, which is greatly influenced by HR.  Speaking of which, his HRs were lessened by 1/3.  But to JF this is unacceptable. 

Taking into account that JF is a talented and well tooled right fielder why would he feel the need to put on 17lbs of muscle?  Answer:  He wants to hit 30HRs.  Chicks dig the longball and JF digs chicks.  Atleast I think he does, but maybe he doesn’t.  Not that there’s anything wrong with that.   What there is something wrong with is taking a step forward in helping to advance the one statistic that matters – WINS -  and taking two steps backwards by bulking up and trying to crush HRs.

 ~jboogz

[*edit - I didn't realize till later that some people may not realize what EqA is.   Here is the definition from Baseball Prospectus since mine found above was lacking:

A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense.  ]